Human existence as you and I know it has been built upon a viscous black foundation – oil. Oil is used for more things than most will realise: engine fuel; fertiliser; plastics; pharmaceuticals and computers, the mere beginnings of an impressively long list, and it is the reason why most people who are alive today, are alive. The use of fossil fuels in agriculture allowed the world to accrue an adequate food supply to sustain a population growth from 1 billion to 6 billion following the industrial revolution, along with the other invaluable functions of oil.
Peak oil is the theory that once oil production reaches a peak, it will begin a terminal decline, with which the cost will very rapidly become scandalous due to the economic doctrines around which we have structured human society. To very briefly explain, as supply peaks and begins to decline, whilst simultaneously demand increases due to uncontrolled population growth, cost will go up – a decline in supply by 5% during the 1979 oil crisis in the USA led to a fourfold price increase. Once the inevitable peak comes, it is suggested that the terminal decline will average out to about 3% year on year. Considering how the majority of the entire global economy is built upon this one resource, the cost increases will result invariably in complete economic chaos with very hardhitting consequences for everyone – other forms of energy may take the brunt somewhat but currently none are sufficiently developed to soften the blow to a comfortable level and many believe that due to the unique properties of oil, no straightforward alternatives exist. To believe in this theory requires the acceptance of one basic inter-subjective fact – that oil is a non-renewable resource; it is not a theory compiled by conspiracy nuts but rather one accepted by academics and governments alike – it is merely a matter of when.
Perhaps one of the most disturbing facts about this theory is that, with the evidence base for the resources we are yet able to muster varying from source to source, and the uncertainty of what technological advances will allow us to do with respect to increasing oil production, there is a lot of speculation about when this eventuality will arise and very little factual substance. There are oil geologists who speculate that the peak is already here and taking time to stabilise before declining, and there are others who believe it will come by 2015 – former BP chief executive Tony Hayward claims it will come by 2020 with a very significant risk of it coming before 2015. The reason why this is so disturbing is that if it were to come when nations are unprepared, the consequences will be nothing short of disastrous, with resource wars and famine a very likely supplement to the likely global economic implosion.

With the conflicting evidence it would be worthless to fathom a guess as to when it will come, and in turn what the consequences will be; nevertheless, one thing that this environmental issue has done is markedly change my perspective on human existence upon this planet. These buildings which we walk past overflowing with people fulfilling different niches within our construct of society; these economic doctrines which govern every day of our lives and consign others to utter poverty, are merely humanity’s own demented little take on Darwinian survivalism, and a deciduous ephemera of life on earth. Any illusion of entitlement, and of the idea that man can somehow unreservedly expend the earth’s limited resources without consequence, is precisely that. Human existence as it is on this planet is a fragile one, only permitted by this chance discovery, and lest we reach rapid consensus on how collectively as a species, we are to tackle this, we may have just experienced the peak of the human species.





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A few weekends ago I went to visit some friends in Oxford. During the three and a half hour journey on the X5 from Cambridge I traveled through Milton Keynes. At the same time the song Candy Shoppe by Emeralds was playing on my iPod. As I looked out at the straight boulevards and perfect trees I wouldn’t have been surprised if someone had told me I was in paradise. Pretty much every street name sounds like something out of a Utopian fantasy: Midsummer Boulevard. Child’s Way. Springfield. Matched by the music I was listening to, the roads stretched on for eternity and every perfectly landscaped flower-bed shone beautiful light. Despite all the bad things I’d heard about Milton Keynes I felt like Audrey Hepburn in Breakfast at Tiffany’s: